3/18 scenarios
Primer on Bohol Earthquake last October 15 2013
Is Metro Manila prepared for an earthquake for an intensity as what hit Bohol last Tuesday. There has been various estimates but they all agree that casualties and damages especially to buildings will be great. We all know that MM lies along a major fault (the Marikina fault and its extends all the way to Rizal and even Alabang) It is difficult to understand why despite this knowledge building officials gave permits to high rise (approaching and beyond 50 stories) I hope they have been designed to withstand earthquakes of 7 or more in magnitude.
As early as June 8, 2013 an article was written in Inquirer which says that 38,000 will be killed and 100,000 will be injured, roads will be impassable, there will be fires, and the MoA area will be a mass grave. This was what MM Chair Francis Tolentino told PMA President Leo Olarte in a closed meeting as MMDA prepares for MM earthquake which goes through a 200 year cycle (it is due). The preparation is called OMY (oplan metro yakal). This is due to the proximity to West Valley fault which has a story of powerful quakes in the past
It will damage 13% of the 170,000 residential buildings and render more 1.2 million people homeless. It can damage 20% of the govt hospitals, building and facilities.
The earthquake will divide MM into four regions
Are we prepared; are we ready. As the Bible says, we do not know the time and hour of the day.
The Philstar article yesterday on the other hand, basing on the 2004 study made by JICA entitled MMEIR (Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction) said 50,000 will be killed. It also said 40% of the residential buildings will be affected: 170,000 houses will collapse and 340,000 will be damaged. JICA painted 18 scenarios
Are you afraid? Are you prepared?
