Is Duterte really way ahead in the Presidential race

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Rizal Philippines
April 30, 2016




 Just barely 8 days before election, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, candidate for President seem to be very much ahead of his rivals, as gleaned from the videos and polls.  If you go to You Tube, you find the following:




1.  Duterte's name being shouted in motorcade for other candidate;

2.  Rally in Mindanao for another candidate, but shouting the name of Duterte;

3.  Really large crowds of attendees in rally vs pictures of other rallies which have been photoshopped and filled with filler pictures;

4.  Allegations of vote buying by admin candidate in MM gathering; (P1,000)

5.  Allegations of incentives by a lady candidate in Mt Province;

6.   Preliminay results showing Duterte to be ahead in OFW polls, HK and ME;

7.  Impolite OFW shouting the name of Duterte in rally of an opponent.

8.  Less than expected number of attendees of rival rallies/motorcade



The business community seemed to be acting negatively as Bloomberg reported a 0.1% dip in peso value, allegedly because of the prospect of Duterte being the new president.

There are two negatives for Duterte: (mukhang nalimutan na ang Australian rape issue)

1.  The alleged P211 million deposit in BPI Julia Vargas branch as alleged by Trillanes (how he got this and exposed this makes him liable for violation of bank secrecy law, a conduct unbecoming of a Senator/legislator)  He however denied that there are no millions in the said account;

2.   The alleged performance in the MBC forum where del Rosario commented that he had nothing concrete for businessman.  Well, he said he will have peace and order, and peace and order is a necessary condition for business to thrive



Corrupt din; di maaasahan sa mga pangako?

Poe/Duterte tops survey for President, Robredo is first, and FM is second for VP race

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Rizal Philippines
April 18, 2016

Poe Duterte lead in latest SWS survey

Sen Grace Poe and  City Mayor Duterte are tied for first place (actually Grace is at 34% and Duterte at 33%) in the latest survey conducted by SWS for TV 5 Roxas, Binay are behind, with Sen Santiago at the back of the race.

 For VP, Rep Leni Robredo is first and followed by Sen Ferdinand Marcos. This was done last April 14, 2016 after the VP debate.   Sen. Chiz Escudero slid down in the ranking.   Last was Sen Gringo Honasan, whom analyst does not have strong desire to win.

There is a 4% degree of error on the survey which covers 1,200 respondents via mobile phone

So Poe/Duterte -  Bong2/Leni

What is your prediction?

Mine is Duterte Bongbong (Although Duterte made unsavory remarks over an Australian rape victim.  He is likely to be unaffected by the incident)

Checking the truth? Did Sen. Grace Poe recommend the Coco Levy Bill

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Rizal Philippines
March 23, 2016

In the Pres debate held in Cebu, she denied she did.  However a post in social media which has been shared thousand times, showed Ms. Poe to be less than truthful.

From Pinoy Trending - SGP draws flak on statement on Coco Levy Fund bill

"Hindi ako pumirma sa CoCo Levy Bill."  SGP  Forged marahil ang pirma sa nakapicture.   Simpleng mga slips po.  Hindi dapat magmula sa magiging pangulo

From Rappler checking the facts on Coco Levy Fund bill

Is NO EL (No Elections) a possible scenario?

                           

It is more fun criticizing

Rizal Philippines
March 13, 2016

The election campaign is now being heated up and a lot of developments are churning up:

1. Grace Poes DQ case at Comelec has been overturned by Supreme Court
           This makes Grace Poe a very strong contender for presidency.  However, she will be hounded by issues, again. see number 2.

2.  There are publications that tell us that she sold a house in USA that is an enclave to the rich

               
                   Washington Post - Grace Poe lived in one of most Luxurious Homes In Fairfax County

                    From Rappler - what we know of Grace Poes US Property

             

Sen Grace Poe should be allowed to run as President

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Rizal Philippines

December 15, 2015

Comelect en banc disqualifies Poe, has five days to get TRO


From Inquirer - Reaction of Sen Grace Poe to her disqualification by COMELEC

Sen Grace Poe who was "disqualified" thrice by Comelec:  by first division, by 2nd division and  Comelec sitting en banc.  Should be allowed to continue her bid to run for the highest position in the country.  To do so would be unfair, and unjust.

The news shouted that she was "disqualified" which former Comelec said not allowed since only the Presidential Electoral Tribunal has the lone authority to disqualify her. The proper term would be petitioned to deny due course to her candidacy under Sec 78 of the Omnibus Election code.

With due respect to the HONORABLE MEMBERS of Comelec

Can the Commission on Election disqualify Grace Poe as Presidential Candidate?

It is more fun criticizing

Rizal Philippines
December 24, 2015

Merry Christmas in 4 hours.

From Rappler - Explainer on Poe Disqualification by Emil Maranon III

The issue for the disqualification of Poe is a complex one.

Strictly speaking Comelec  cant disqualify  Poe.  Only the PET can

1.  There are 2 course of action vs Sen Poe -  disqualification  Section 12 and 68 and petition to deny course under Section 78

2.  Disqualification can be based only on the following grounds :  insanity incompetence and conviction for crimes, insurrection, subversion and rebellion among others.  Inability or absence of qualfication is not one of them.  Only PET can decide on this

3. Petition to deny course is another issue.

The full and exact discussion is quoted here:

• "Under Section 78, a COC may be denied due course or cancelled when a candidate commits “material representation” in his COC. Under prevailing jurisprudence, that means one should prove that there is “deliberate attempt to mislead, misinform, or hide a fact which would otherwise render a candidate ineligible. In other words, it must be made with an intention to deceive the electorate as to one’s qualifications for public office.”

• Petition to Deny Course, however, does not tackle the qualification of the candidate per se, but whether the candidate committed any deliberate misrepresentation in relation to those qualifications. Bad faith being an indispensable element of the petition, good faith naturally is an available defense. Thus, an ineligible candidate who made an erroneous declaration in an honest belief that he possesses all the qualification cannot come under the provision.

• Despite the above distinctions, the two remedies have the same effect of eliminating a candidate from an electoral race. This is why candidates have long exploited these remedies to eliminate opponents without the benefit of an election, or to simply increase their chance of winning. From the perspective of cost, this is the cheaper way to win an election."

This is really not a disqualification case, but a question of misrepresentation. or motive to misrepresent.  The opponents of Poe may employ the Petition to Deny Course under Section 78 is the best way to defeat opponents cheap

It is established by the l987 constitution that only PET has sole authority to to disqualify Presidential Candidate. Comelec may view this a dimunition of authority.  Thus the decision of Comelec is summary, merely examination of documents and no hearings are conducted. The issue of citizenship would have to settled in courts, being long and complex.

This post is not partial to Sen Grace Poe; but the Comelec and or the political opponents of the good senator must respect law;  if not exercise fairness and justice.  She must be allowed to have her day in court and at the polls

This post respects the decision of the Comelec commissioners sitting en banc. But the public must know what are the legal issues involved.  The good body could have erred.

Sen Grace Poe disqualified by Comelec en banc; must seek a TRO in 5 days; Duterte's bid also facing DQ

It is more fun criticizing

From WSJ - Sen Grace Poe disqualified by Comelec

Comelec Cant Disqualify Poe - Former Comelec Chair Brilliantes

x                                  Sen Grace Poe disqualifed at You Tube

Rizal Philippines
December 24, 2015

At midnight today, it is Christmas.  Merry Christmas.

But it is not Merry Christmas for Sen Grace Poe who was disqualified from running by Comelec sitting en banc based on two allegations:    1. that she is not natural born Filipino    2.  that she has not completed the 10 year residency.

On a recent survey she was second to the VP Jejomar Binay who may face possible prosecution on graft charges.   She shared the same ranking with former DILG Sec. Roxas.  City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is 3rd at 20% (affected by his cussing of the Pope)  It was alleged that he may be disqualified because Dino whom he replaced as a candidate was was himself not qualified to run  (as nuisance candidate)

Sen Poe will seek the intervention of the Supreme Court so that her name will be included in the list of qualified candidates.  With Duterte, Binay facing possible disqualification,  and Poe now disqualified, the May election will be in disarray

Former Comelec Chairmn Brilliantes said that Comelec cant disqualify Grace Poe. Only Presidential Electoral Tribunal can disqualify a Presidential Candidate.

GMA Network - Comelec cant disqualify Poe

From Inquirer - Comelec has authority to disqualify Poe

Analysis of 2016 Presidentiables

It is more fun criticizing

Rizal Philippines
December 5, 2015

                                               Who is your 2016 President from trending portal

Who will be the next President in 2016?

Mar Roxas, Jejomar Binay, Grace Poe, Duterte, Myriam Santiago, Rodrigo Duterte

List of candidates for Pres/VP from Rappler

4 Major Contenders for Presidency - from Fox News

Let us try to anyalyze them using the triad of leadership and more:

                           Purpose                      Character                        Competence

Mar Roxas         ? (gaya2)                       /                                     ?  MRT Yolanda

Myriam             ?                                    /                                     ?  (health issue, admin experience)

Binay                 ?                                   ?                                     /

Grace Poe          ?                                   /                                     ?

Duterte               /                                   ?  Nagmumura                /

Si Mar, in question ang competence niya kasi maraming mga question sa pinanggalingan niya ng departatmento.  Halimbawa sa MRT and the handling of the Yolanda relief and rehab.

Si Myriam, she seemed to lack the purpose/the passion to run to lead the passion.  She seemed to have lost the fire in herself, may be as a result of the disease.  And the idea that she was entertaining the idea of backing out.  She was a legislator and a judge, and would seem to lack admininistrative  skills needed to run this country.  As for her character,?....