The analysis is a masterpiece of critical thinking of the first principle, ie breaking down the weapons in its component. Those are Pentagon did a masterful thinking on this campaign - destroy the capability to produce the weapon that can swarm, and the asssymeteric warfare is gone.
Peace to be here back soon.
Congrats to US. But the real purpose of the war is not that venerable, is it? (Smokescreen for the domestic problems and conflicts and the loss of Petro dollars, Japan currency fiasco)
2.End of US as reserve currency. The pegging of US dollar to gold was ended in 1971 when fmr Richard Nixon ended convertibility of US dollar to gold. France collected US gold and so with many other countries and Pres. Nixon saw it fit to end the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 that pegged US dollar to the gold. This meant less US countries are using US dollar as reserve and that means more US dollar coming home to roost
Another cause for dumping of US dollar from its reserve currency status were: weaponizing the dollar vs Russia. Every country is vulnerable to such sanction and thus avoided the dollar.
3.End of the 50 year Petro dollar. There was so called Petro dollar agreement between Henry Kissinger where the deal was for making KSA ask for payment in dollar, and in return US would support KSA by arms and security. KSA also would invest petro dollars in US treasury. It was seen, like the Japan Yen, KSA recycling the payment by USA back to US (even when the oil was purchased) thus supporting the US cheap lifestyle (as with the Plaza accord for Japan)
Thus US printed more US dollar to support this oil purchase in dollars. US exported inflation to KSA and supported US debt
5. Japan is now selling off its $1.3 trillion holding of US treasuries (to finance it QE to support the moribund Japan economy. They are raising the local bonds to near 2% (from negative) pausing Japans appetite to US treasury. That means less buyer for US treasuries, and less liquidity for USA. Japan is probably reeling to US Trumps 50% export tariff to Japanese goods (despite the Plaza accord)
6. What are your alternatives? (Survivalists were right)
Philippines is a safe haven after all. Rich natural resources: seas for food, plenty of farmlands. Many may see Americans escaping difficulties at US homeland due to this forthcoming collapse: US bankruptcy. It is expected that life will be hard in USA.
This is not going to be good for US market and Japan. Japan has more than 250% of its debt vs GDP and for a long time has fed US with less than market % for its debt. Japan accumulates trade deficit with US over. It has increased its bond rate up to 2% ending the period of free source of funds for arbitrage (borrowing yen for higher yield investment) Japan supported both deficits of US: trade and budget.
What has happened? Japan has decided to grant stimulus package to companies because of static growth of the economy. To finance this QE, Japan has to unload some of its treasuries (Which will not go unnoticed by the world financial market). This puts pressure on US borrowing, now saddled with $37 trillion in debt, higher servicing of its debt, now at 15% of GDP and $1.2 debt servicing. With the QE, the Yen is devaluing and Japan has to prop up its currency
Its now over, the yen is on free fall and very likely its going to be devalued and Japan economy could collapse. Japan was a big headache for IMF for a long time according to former boss Lagarde.
Japan used to be the 2nd largest economy in the world after US, and was the hotbed of manufacturing. But now its famous brands have fallen: Toshiba, Sharp, National, Sony. Now Japan is campaigning itself as a tourist destination. Do you think that this is Karma for Japan, following its atrocities in WW 2.?
What are the other consequences. The carry trade. Arbiters and currency traders, borrowed from Japanese banks at zero or near zero interest and used the same to hedge: buy other currencies, invest in foreign stocks etc to gain some tidy profit. However this feast is over, as the Japanese bonds are now more expensive. So companies on carry trade have to cash out or drown under water. This business, totaling $20 trillion could cause massive strain on world financial liquidity, even for US
This also means that US debt US treasuries will mean more interest expense for US homebuyers and consumer finance from credit cards.
China is also dumping US treasuries due to political and trade tensions And with both China and Japan US two biggest creditors dumping US treasuries, US will find itself paying more for debt and even a liquidity crisis
Also note the end of US Petrodollar and Chinas payment system bypassing SWIFT and BRICS nation bypassing the US dollar altogether. When Eurodollar and Petrodollar start coming home to roost, watch how more US dollars coming home means hyper inflation for USA.
Has DPWH our geniuses thought of something similar for Bicol? We had massive budget for Bicol. P61 billion for the last two years? We can build open impounding pond or lakek for flood control. The idea of flood control is to slow down the flow (vs storm drainage to speed up a low. This post studied flood control early on)
Did their respresentation let them down?
We can add reforestation reclaiming riverways and waterways from river bank projects.
The secret to their economic miracle were: keiretsu, MITI, exports, and extreme cooperation across society. Kaizen, processes, JIT, Deming on quality
Their collapse was triggered by the events of lost decade. People speculated on real estate because of low BOJ interest rate. Companies attetnion to maintaining market share and productivity were diverted to real estate speculation. When BOJ increased interest rates, Japans economy was doomed. Many companies shuttered.
The more important thing is culture. Japan's culture does not encourage change/innovation
Population is declining. More aged people deominate the population
Despite being the conqueror of our country in WW2, and news of atrocities vs our people, as a business person I admired the achievement of Japan. It was the No 2 biggest economy in the world after USA.
So I bought and read over and over books by Konosokue Mastsuhita, Akio Morita, books on the Toyota Way. Studied their quality circle, the voice of quality, Kaizen, 5s and many more.
However I was disappointed to see news of business failures despite these vaunted very sound business practices: Toshiba, Olympus, Sharp and many more. Perhaps because of too much competition from Korea and China, they were not able to adopt well. And more importantly the collapse of the bubble in 1990.
When Lagarde (head of IMF) spoke about world finances, she mentioned that her number 1 problem was Japan.
And this was exacerbated by the 2011 Tsunami and Fukushima meltdown
We plan to visit Japan soon and see how clean and how beautiful and advanced it is.
It is the sincerest wish of this post that she recapture her glorious past and progress.
The Japan miracle growth was orchestrated by US to show that they can help Asian countries become prosperous.
The Japanese miracle from 1950 to 1975. Due to inflated land prices. Changes in accounting rules that allowed increasing prices as part of income. Those days were heydays in the feeling of prosperity and progress of Japan. The Japanese went on acquisition binge
And bubble burst in 1990. The stock market crashed, the real estate prices fell down. The Japanese faced the reality that they were not that wealthy. From this crash, Japan never recovered.
Japan has one of the highest debt to GDP ratio. (As USA). Despite their seeming opulence, Japan has economic and financial weakness.
It is a nice place to visit and value for money because of the low exchange rate for Japan.
There are news that train fare will be increased because some train companies have pending applications for fare increases with govt regulatory agencies.
Now comes objections with President or spokesperson of coalition train riders who are objecting to the said increase From what I know the increases are friendly and minimal.
It costs a lot of money to build train system much less operate the same. and somebody has to pay the price, It is indeed a blessing that we have a train system at least for some cities. It makes travel faster and more efficient.
From what I know the train fare say in Japan, it costs Yen 28,000 to trave between Kyoto and Tokyo or roughly P682.00 php a distance of 365 kilometers or P1.87 / per km It says that commuting in Japan costs between Yen 4,000 to 8,000 a week that is in pesos P97.50, to P195.00
The recent diversion of flight to Clark International Airport underscored the importance of fast express train between Manila and Clark.
Yes there was a Chinese funded North Rail Project under then Pres. GMA. About P20 B has been spent in removing and resettling the rail squatter but when there were policy issue as to whether what was wanted was a commuter train or express train, the project was scuttled. Sayang, after spending P20 billion on the resettlement projects and ROW. (From a former North Rail official in the know)
And now are we serious in getting Japan funded project for North Rail. Sana the political will to get our mass transport system and the air travel improved relocated to Clark (that is a good idea. Sobra traffic sa Manila at congested na MIAA airport) It is time to level up and move Phil a notch up in International Travel. This will also move progress to Region 3.
Ever wondered why there are no jihad attacks in Japan. Muslims are not allowed in Japan. Out of 100 million plus Japanese, there are no only 10,000 Muslims in Japan. It is a simple equation. Japanese leaders seldom visit Muslim countries. Japanese women are ostracized when they marry Muslims. Quran is not allowed in Japan. There are no mosques.
It is that simple. No Muslims, no jihad.
So Muslims should not hate Trump for proposing to limit the entry of Muslims who could be jihadist (jihad is essential part of the Islam religion, it is not an extreme ideology) after a terrorist attack in California. It is the duty of the leaders of a country to provide safety and security for its citizens, even it means screening/keeping out Muslims. USA can not continue to import adverse elements into its territory, like pests, or food or drugs. USA does not have to buy oil from Muslim countries. Muslim countries will get impoverished if they do not sell oil.
This is rather disturbing. Several months back, IMF President mentioned in an interview re EU woes that they are worried about Japan? What worry about Japan, the 3rd biggest economy in the world, an economic juggernaut. A model for industrialization and economic development?
What has happened?
Reports have it that raising taxes and raising consumption has not worked for Japan. 3rd quarter for Japan showed its economic output shrink by 1.6% officially throwing Japan into recession.
Has tsunami anything to do with this debacle? Or the Fukushima accident.?
