The analysis is a masterpiece of critical thinking of the first principle, ie breaking down the weapons in its component. Those are Pentagon did a masterful thinking on this campaign - destroy the capability to produce the weapon that can swarm, and the asssymeteric warfare is gone.
Peace to be here back soon.
Congrats to US. But the real purpose of the war is not that venerable, is it? (Smokescreen for the domestic problems and conflicts and the loss of Petro dollars, Japan currency fiasco)
There were tremors in the oil market, spoofing the oil markets, and it was projected that gas in the PHL will rise by P10.00 to P15.00 per liter triggering massive price increases in transport and daily necessities and spiking inflation. This was due to the withdrawing of insurance by Lloyds of London UK
However, we note:
1. The leadership of Iran is gone,
2. Navy ships gone, Air force gone (However the missiles could still be a threat)
Ground war;
3. Trump promised to have US navy escort the ship through the gulf of Hormuz and insure the same thru the US International Development Finance Corporation.
US may be spending a lot for this war, probably now in billions of $ But its all about control of oil, energy, insurance money. And by projecting power to UAE, petro dollars will not vanish after all. Petro dollars will be here to stay. (No severe backlash for US, no domestic inflation) Trump wins.
This post was asked by a colleague whether we should rethink our strategy in view of the above challenge by txt. I said no, as this is so far away from us. As we have not been affected by Israel Gaza war, USSR Ukraine war.
And then the news that Supreme Commander and 40 others top military leader being neutralized by an air attack. What else does Iran have? How else is this war going to impact the market?
The Supreme Head of Iran, Khameini and 40 other commanders were killed in air strike effectively wiping out totally the country's leadership. No definite successor is determined. The fear for a prolonged war is probably lost. No more uncertainity
90% of the worlds advanced microchip are built at TSMC. Built by a Chinese senior officer Morris Chang at Texas Instrument. How leadership in chip manufacturing got pulled from USA by Chinese. Can US recover their chip dominance (led by Intel before? But they got lazy)
The lend lease program between US and UK was seen as an act of solidarity and unity. But in reality it was receivership. UK desperate for weapons it needed vs US had
1. Pay in advance for ammunition and small arms (like buying from China) in gold. UK treasury was stripped of gold;
2. UK companies in US were sold for a bargain
3. 50 old US ships it had no use off, were traded for US bases in UK territory.
This is not going to be good for US market and Japan. Japan has more than 250% of its debt vs GDP and for a long time has fed US with less than market % for its debt. Japan accumulates trade deficit with US over. It has increased its bond rate up to 2% ending the period of free source of funds for arbitrage (borrowing yen for higher yield investment) Japan supported both deficits of US: trade and budget.
What has happened? Japan has decided to grant stimulus package to companies because of static growth of the economy. To finance this QE, Japan has to unload some of its treasuries (Which will not go unnoticed by the world financial market). This puts pressure on US borrowing, now saddled with $37 trillion in debt, higher servicing of its debt, now at 15% of GDP and $1.2 debt servicing. With the QE, the Yen is devaluing and Japan has to prop up its currency
Its now over, the yen is on free fall and very likely its going to be devalued and Japan economy could collapse. Japan was a big headache for IMF for a long time according to former boss Lagarde.
Japan used to be the 2nd largest economy in the world after US, and was the hotbed of manufacturing. But now its famous brands have fallen: Toshiba, Sharp, National, Sony. Now Japan is campaigning itself as a tourist destination. Do you think that this is Karma for Japan, following its atrocities in WW 2.?
What are the other consequences. The carry trade. Arbiters and currency traders, borrowed from Japanese banks at zero or near zero interest and used the same to hedge: buy other currencies, invest in foreign stocks etc to gain some tidy profit. However this feast is over, as the Japanese bonds are now more expensive. So companies on carry trade have to cash out or drown under water. This business, totaling $20 trillion could cause massive strain on world financial liquidity, even for US
This also means that US debt US treasuries will mean more interest expense for US homebuyers and consumer finance from credit cards.
China is also dumping US treasuries due to political and trade tensions And with both China and Japan US two biggest creditors dumping US treasuries, US will find itself paying more for debt and even a liquidity crisis
Also note the end of US Petrodollar and Chinas payment system bypassing SWIFT and BRICS nation bypassing the US dollar altogether. When Eurodollar and Petrodollar start coming home to roost, watch how more US dollars coming home means hyper inflation for USA.
A proposed bill in USA (time for US politicians to shine) is threatening the loss and or decline of the Phl BPO industry that brings in $30 billion in revenues and supports 2 million workers. Under the proposed act, US will penalize companies: by not providing loans, grants and benefits if they keep call centers abroad.
A strict monitoring system will produce a Do not reward list of companies that will surely force many US companies to give up Call Centers in the Philippines.
US market is 70% of the PHL BPO total market. This will surely hurt the PHL BPO
What does it mean to the Philippine economy to Philippine workers. ? Many BPO workers wearn as much as $500 -700 /per month exclusive of health care. Quite a blessing.
What would happen to the current BPO workers and the industry supporting this: leasing companies, Cyberzone, buildings housing call centers, housing and rental units for the workers: vans and angkas transporting BPO workers.
The stock market lost P1.7 trillion in just three weeks due to the unfolding flood control scandals.? Do you agree? Or some other factors were at play? This was disputed by Sec. Go as fake news.
Will US follow the cycle, the pattern of rise and fall of empire. Here is a terrifying prediction about the end of US dominance and superiority. This post hopes this is going to end well.
The primary cause: as with Roman empire, the high cost of maintaining its huge network of military bases worldwide would eventually consume itself. 80 military bases in 70 countries But the investment in high tech military hardware drains US resources at the expense of domestic improvements: $13B for an aircraft carrier, $2B for a bomber. $1 million for a smart missile. While domestic infrastructure and welfare suffer. All ready Trump is executing countermeasures by asking say NATO to pay the cost of military hardware, and stopping military aid to Ukraine.
But the other cause of loss of economic productivity - US has outsourced its manufacturing prowess
PHL Pres BBM got a 1% discount off the US planned tariff to PHL exports US cars export to PHL 0 per cent. Pres. Trump PBBM a tough negotiator. (Tough?)
This is seen by PBBM as significant achievement.
Many PHL experts think PBBM should have asked for more given that we agreed to EDCA and we are in possession of REM. But PBBM was in the White House in US, trump territory.
Experts believe that 19% would have minimal effect on PHL economy given that semicon has 0 tariff, and exports to US has been down, but higher with China. There are other countries to which PHL can export
Clearly US wants to live alone, and disrespectful of World Trade and has bullied many nations. We will not be wondering if there are angrier nations and or allies becoming enemies.
We should really be independent of US policies and not be another proxy country fighting for US vs Russia or China. Time to be tough
A federal judge has blocked the ban by Pres. Trump to process student visas. So the state department has ordered the issuance of visa to said foreign students.
There was this news/video of Ukraine Pres Zelensky vs US Pres Donald Trump + VP J.D Vance in shouting match over the strategic metals deal (which others say is non existent). Trump claims Pres Z is disrespectful of American people and many see Ukraine is ungrateful on past US aid to Ukraine in fighting the war.
The ranting of Zelensky at White House is viewed as disrespectful of the US President, and thus Pres Z was shooed away from the meeting.
There were plenty of troubles in the past:
1. Allegations of moeny laundering of US aid;
2. Zelensky when asked about $300 billion in US aid, he said I dont know which is irresponsible and unstatesman like. And show how untrustworthy leader he is; and irresponsible.
Truly the behavior of Pres Z at the WH is less than respectable.
If US no longer supports Ukraine, then there will be no more funds to finance the war, and it would stop. And bad blood between US and USSR will cease. This is not US + Ukraine vs USSR war. It is a war between Ukraine and USSR.
Nations must be ready to fight their own war, and must be realistic, that nations will mind their own people fist before others and alliances at best are only good in paper.
Trump must be admired in his efforts to end the war; the killing of soldiers on both sidesweekly is deplorable and must be stopped
The 47th President of US Donald John Trump; is busy working issuing several orders to fulfill his election promise:
1. Closing the US southern border declaring a state of emergency there and ordering troos and US war equipmkent to be deployed there. US has deported all ready several migrants there especially those involved in violent crimes to be deported via US planes.
Mexico and Colombia initally declined landings of planes there but capitulated for fear of US tarriff
2. Freezing of US aid; except military aid to Israel and Egypt. A US judge has blocked the order for the medical aid treatment in the US.
But Pres Trump has noted bizarre aid that does not benefit US interest. The US aid freeze lasts fo 9- days during which a review is to ber mde.
3. US birthright.
Children of migrant citizens whose parents are not US citizens (not green card holder or US citizien) do not get automatic US citizenship
Many are criticizing are alartmed at such policies but the Pres is simply fulfilling his election campaign promise and wants to protect the ineterest of US citizens.
There are often mentions of Iranian proxies in ME likek Houtis, Yemenis, Hezbollah. Parties that are being supplied seapons and financial support by Iran to fight Isreal and US.
Now in Asia, US has lent us weapons and $500 million to help build bases to whose goal presumably is to neutralize China. Loads of armaments were offladed at SBMA and Clark.
Is PhL now a US proxy? Will this make PHL a magnet for China first strike wince there are US missles in teh country?
She roasted fmr Pres, Trump in the recent ABC sponsored debate, her rallies are well attended, Taylor Swift, Oprah, endorsed her. She could be the first US female President.
Preidctions after predictions name her as the new US President (including Simpson)
However there are only two cultural obstacles for her:
1. Male chauvinists in USA,
2. Race supremacy. She hails from India
God bless Kamala Harris on her pursuit of US Presidency.
