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Showing posts with label Petro Dollars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Petro Dollars. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Every empire that tried to bring down Iran eventually collapsed; will USA be next

It is more fun criticizing

All empires that tried to defeat Iran eventually folded up:    Alexander the Great,  Arabs Mongols, Russia, Iraq, and then the USA?

Will these trend be followed by events that are unfording?

What are teh factors to consider:

1.  Manpower needed to control Iran 3.0 million
2.   Expensive technology by US to fight Iran
3.   Assymetry of economics:   swarming cheap drones vs expensive 
4.   Huge cash needed to maintain war $900.00 million  (1 billion a day) vs guerilla and 
      survival proxy war;    impoverishing domestic US economy

US views the war as only one dimensional;   Iran uses 3 other dimensions:

   1.  Economic -   Hormuz can slow down world economy using Hormuz (without closing this)
        by projectig fear and alarm  (by using drones and boats) and thus spooks insurance...

   2.  Political -  water and food  (can be spooked by Iran   as their neighbors get food through Hormuz.
        Thus the war can turn the conflict into humanitarian crisis...

        US is now becoming an isnurance provider.

  3.   Petro dollar -   these conflict are eroding the power of petrodollar and puts difficulty in financing            the  war

  4.  Hometown narrative -  if the population in USA no longer supports nor believes the narrative.





Friday, March 6, 2026

US Navy will escort and insure ships passing through gulf of Hormuz, effectively outwitting Lloyds and UK; war is all about dominating global business

It is more fun criticizing

There were tremors in the oil market, spoofing the oil markets, and it was projected that gas in the PHL will rise by P10.00 to P15.00 per liter triggering massive price increases in transport and daily necessities and spiking inflation.    This was due to the withdrawing of insurance by Lloyds of London UK

However, we note:

    1.  The leadership of Iran is gone, 
    2.  Navy ships gone,  Air force gone  (However the missiles could still be a threat)
         Ground war;
   3.   Trump promised to have US navy escort the ship through the gulf of Hormuz and insure the same thru the US International Development Finance Corporation.   

US may be spending a lot for this war, probably now in billions of $ But its all about control of oil, energy, insurance money.   And by projecting power to UAE, petro dollars will not vanish after all.   Petro dollars will be here to stay.   (No severe backlash for US, no domestic inflation)   Trump wins.




Friday, December 12, 2025

US going to be bankrupt?

It is more fun criticizing










Is US going to be bankrupt?  Many pundits say yes.

What are the factors that may lead to this?

1.  US $38 trillion debt. Its debt service is over $1 trillion much more than US spending on military and health.    Its ratio of debt service to GDP is 121% and many say the threshold is of 120% has been crossed.

2.  End of US as reserve currencyThe pegging of US dollar to gold was ended in 1971 when fmr Richard Nixon ended convertibility of US dollar to gold.  France collected US gold and so with many other countries and Pres. Nixon saw it fit to end the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 that pegged US dollar to the gold.  This meant less US countries are using US dollar as reserve and that means more US dollar coming home to roost

    Another cause for dumping of US dollar from its reserve currency status were:  weaponizing the dollar vs Russia.   Every country is vulnerable to such sanction and thus avoided the dollar.  

    BRICS countries are dumping the dollar as reserve currency and having their own electronic transfer system bypassing SWIF

3.  End of the 50 year Petro dollar.  There was so called Petro dollar agreement between Henry Kissinger  where the deal was for making KSA ask for payment in dollar, and in return US would support KSA by arms and security.   KSA also would invest petro dollars in US treasury.   It was seen, like the Japan  Yen, KSA recycling the payment by USA back to US (even when the oil was purchased) thus supporting the US cheap lifestyle (as with the Plaza accord for Japan)

    Thus US printed more US dollar to support this oil purchase in dollars. US exported inflation to KSA and supported US debt

What this means:

     The cheap US Petro dollar coming home to to roost and US mainland will be flooded with dollars and hyperinflation will be the tune of the day.  Currency debasement is prelude to collapse:   it has happened to Roman denarius, Spanish pesetas, UK pound sterling.  It can  and will happen to US dollar

5.   Japan is now selling off its $1.3 trillion holding of US treasuries (to finance it QE to support the moribund Japan economy.   They are raising  the local bonds to near 2% (from negative) pausing Japans appetite to US treasury.  That means less  buyer for US treasuries, and less liquidity for USA.  Japan is probably reeling to US Trumps 50% export tariff to Japanese goods (despite the Plaza accord)

6.  What are your alternatives?  (Survivalists were right)


Philippines is a safe haven after all.   Rich natural resourcesseas for food, plenty of farmlands.  Many may see Americans escaping difficulties at US homeland due to this forthcoming collapse:  US bankruptcy.  It is expected that life will be hard in USA.