Next bursting of bubble - the AI bubble

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First we have the dot.com bubble burst, then the 2008 prime mortgages bubble burst, and now many see the AI bubble.    AI they say is over hyped and the reality is that most claims of benefits are not being delivered.   One such failure is by Stellantis.

What is the impact of this bubble burst:

1.  For your business;

2.  For PHL economy?

3.  For the world economy

Start of global stock market crash, of a recession

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When USA sneezes, the whole world trembles:  Some weaknesses in US economy:

1.  Weakening of regional bank;   one regional bank to close every week

2.  Largest share of GDP is consumer spending.  70% of total GDP, and is financed by credit cards

3.  Apocalypse of commercial real estate;   about to crash

4.  Banks sitting on large portfolio of commercial loans;

5.  Weak residential market (repeat of 2008)

6.  Large number of unemployment.   Even top tier company:    Google, Tesla, Intel.

Global stock market crash has began

Will POGO ban affect the real estate sector, stock market?

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Some economist say the effect will be minimal.  Govt officials say that the revenue from POGO is not that much.  China welcomed the banning of POGO

There is much negative social effect:   source of criminality, scams, well losses from gambling.  And as the Senate investigation is pointing out, can be source of security risk -  espionage. Some of their workers could be spies, or soldiers of the PLA

All ready, real estate companies are predicting drop in rents as many offices will be vacated.  Initially the real estate market reacted.  The prices of real estate companies drooped days after the POGO ban was announced.          

First cash first served; fuera ghosts

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We were planning to buy a parcel of land to add to the project.  The first one was aborted because there were news that the neighborhood would object.  How nice would the little pc of land be to the project.  We informed the agent of the plan and even had a written communication to that effect (we just concluded a multimillion deal)

The project is a memorial project 

However an up and coming millionaire pulled one over us paid in cash.  The property would be made a warehouse for their beauty (soap products).   How the deal turned out smacks of lack of professionalism and lack of integrity on the part of people whom we talk

Let not the smell of dead carcass be on their beauty products or the troubled souls play in their warehouse.   

Scams abound: on line even on high level business and even govt transactions

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There were several times when this post was nearly scammed, for huge amount:

1.   One agent, and this was 3 decades ago, using beautiful ladies as bait tried to sell me a large portion 

a property for a measly sum in Las Pinas, Had it checked by our GE it turned out to be BF Homes Las Pinas.  How could he?  He is the father of a schoolmate from BI, Pasig

2.  The more recent one involved a large tract of land in the farthest end of this province.  He is the uncle of an acquaintance who was selling a 20 hectare foreshore land that abuts the municipal market.   The deal being proposed, is we give P10m to the foundation.   Now there were certain things we discovered:

     1.  The property was not adjacent to the municipal market.  There is a gap of 5 hectares between

          the market and the property

    2.  The property is currently being cultivated by a group of farmers cooperative, one of his members

         was a pamangkin

    3.  There is a tenant planting melon whose lease gave him the right of first refusal

    4.  The property was subject to an EJ, and no relation can be established between the property 

          and the foundation

3.  Another involves a 10 hectare in a mountain village allegedly a commission granted to the father of the owner.  He is sabungero.  If we could give the broker P10m, then we can start possessing the property But 

we found out

    1, There is no right of way to the property;

    2.  Somebody had CTS with the owner

    3.  Somebody paid for RPT tax before and he had certainly lien on the property

These are tiny compared to the IMBD scam involving  $4.5 whose main participant were Johny Low, and fmr. Prime Minister Rajiv,

Scammers multiply and let us be wary of them 

Why are real estate prices: offices and housing shooting up so fast in Metro Manila

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Rizal Philippines
April 17, 2019

Gaming industry and Chinese workers driving up real estate prices in Manila

Yesterday, I was in the office of a former chair of Real Estate Company of the government, a former banker  who told me the fantastic real estate deals in MM.  Condo price/sm has risen to a record of P500,000/sm (up from mere P100,000 about 3 years ago)   In Forbes Park there were real estate deals involving sale of house and lot running in Billions of pesos.  Incredible but true.  What could be the reason?

1.  Well may be the market is awash in liquidity what with low interest rates on the bank deposit (1/4 of 1%)
     the BPO and OFW dollar remittances.

2.  But the more important thing is the influx of Chinese workers for POGO (Philippine Offshore Gaming Offices) (Phil is now the number 1 gaming spot in Asia even bigger than Macau and Singapore with most of them in the Bay (MoA area)  The developers there are having it so good like Double Dragon.  The Chinese according to Injap are paying at 30% premium.  and has pdc for say a 5 year contract.

There could be 200,000 or more Chinese workers (so BI is having a heyday hehe2 for its ....activities)
and have driven up prices of housing and office rental.  The Chinese invasion of the WPC is bad for us but the POGO invasion is doing good for the business and the financial markets...