Every empire that tried to bring down Iran eventually collapsed; will USA be next

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All empires that tried to defeat Iran eventually folded up:    Alexander the Great,  Arabs Mongols, Russia, Iraq, and then the USA?

Will these trend be followed by events that are unfording?

What are teh factors to consider:

1.  Manpower needed to control Iran 3.0 million

2.   Expensive technology by US to fight Iran

3.   Assymetry of economics:   swarming cheap drones vs expensive 

4.   Huge cash needed to maintain war $900.00 million  (1 billion a day) vs guerilla and 

      survival proxy war;    impoverishing domestic US economy

US views the war as only one dimensional;   Iran uses 3 other dimensions:

   1.  Economic -   Hormuz can slow down world economy using Hormuz (without closing this)

        by projectig fear and alarm  (by using drones and boats) and thus spooks insurance...

   2.  Political -  water and food  (can be spooked by Iran   as their neighbors get food through Hormuz.

        Thus the war can turn the conflict into humanitarian crisis...

        US is now becoming an isnurance provider.

  3.   Petro dollar -   these conflict are eroding the power of petrodollar and puts difficulty in financing            the  war

  4.  Hometown narrative -  if the population in USA no longer supports nor believes the narrative.

An economic wasteland being produced in California by progressive laws under a progressive governor

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Economic challenges are facing a state that has an economy second only  to the United States.

Businesses are transferrring elsewhere and crisis after crisis are expected.  TESLA and others are moving to Texas.   Silicon Valley techno firms are leaving Silicon Valley -  why probably because of policies from Sacramento

Some indicators:

1.  Closure of two refineries producing roughly 200,000 barrels of fuel fueled by ambition to shift to EV, non polluting technology  --->> will result in higher fuel costs even sidelining airline operations, affecting the fuel of military.  Since all things are systemic, the ripple effect even NY and other fuel supplies in nearby states and all of US.

They were forced out due to stiff fines due to non compliance with emission standards.

It was reported that the state subsidized the battery research and EV manufacturers  with $18 billion. while just supporing rise to 1% (from 2%) of EV user  The refineries were just asking relief for millions of penalty.

2.  70,000 truckers planning to stop operations -->> will affect logistics and prices of goods

Independent truckers family owned are to be treated as employers and owners are to be taxed as owners being treated as employees and employee taxes are to be imposed.    Assembly No 5

     a.  Freedom from employer control

     b.  There is no negotiation.   If you take freight, you are an employee

If you resist, leave the state.  

3.  Closure of about 400 gasoline stations.  They were to be upgrading the tanks and red tape prevented

them from upgrading.    Local fuel supplies are compromised

      

4  Closure of hundreds of retail due to shift on law on shoplifting  -->> affect access to daily necessities in rural communities.  Theft shoplifitng of less than $950 is misdemeanor.   Retailers experience up to 5% shrinkage of inventory have no choice except to close shop

4.   Closure of farms due to change on policy on irrigation and fertilizer  -->> will result in loss of income of farmers and food security across USA

Bad times in NZ? OFW sent home

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Is New Zealand experiencing economic downturn.  This video depicts Filipino OFW being sent home even before the end of contracts.

The world is really experiencing shrinkage in economies due to inflation, high debt level, post pandemic, bad governance, wars and the like 

For those who depend on work abroad much critical thinking and research has to be made prior to deployment

Kamala Harris, Democratic Party Presidentail policies - will they be palatable to American people? Will she get elected

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VP Kamala Harris, Democratic Party candidate has announced two major economic policies:

1.  Price control for basic commoditiies

2.  Higher taxes for various income levels  (like taxes on unrealized capital gains which can go beyond 40%)

Many observes say her economic plans are popular.   They say this is Kamalinism

Many commented that this prior announcement will turn US into a commie nation.  Price controls have not worked for USSR, for Venezuela, for Nixon adminsitration.  

Will her party support such a plan?  Will she win?   What is the effect to the Philippines if she gets elected?

Trillion dollar notes at Zimbabwe which is virtually worthless

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A former classmate boasted in a reunion because he is a millionaire.  He worked in an African country

and earned in their currency millions

Of note is Zimbabwe whose currency is in trillions.  Because of fiscal mismanagement, there is a a 23 million %  hyper inflation. and solid currencies are beginning to be used.  Use of dollar pound has resulted in 0 inflation and even deflation.   

A trillion currency is worth $0.40.  

Can  you believe?  Worthless currency at Zimbabwe

Cause of Zimbabwe's hyperinflation.

History of economic collapse of Zimbabwe

The cause of Zimbabwe's hyperinflation was attributed to numerous economic shocks. The national government increased the money supply in response to rising national debt, there were significant declines in economic output and exports, and political corruption was coupled with a fundamentally weak economy.Dec 7, 2022

Political and economic woes in Venezuela

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Rizal Philippines
April 30, 2017

It seems like a flash since April Fools Day.


We may not be aware of it but Venezuela is experiencing great political (social) and economic turmoil.

From Forbes - worsening crisis in Venezuela

From CNN

                                          Energy crisis sa oil producing country?

                                             Protests are frequent occurrences (because of hunger
                                                  and few working days )
Economic:

1.  Inflation is at 1,600% .  It is predicted to be half this year but at 2,000% in 2018.

2.  Food and medicine is at short supply, There is even lack of electricity, despite the fact that it sits on top on one of the richest oil deposit in the world.  Most of the food is imported.

3.  Unemployment is at massive 25%

4.  The govt has taken over multinational companies who shuttered down their operations and pulled out of the country.

This is attributed to:  socialist policies of predecessor of Pres. Maduro.  (Chavez)  The only solution is hike wages, and food stamps for people, and resort to rationing.

Change of currency, devaluation, more borrowings will mean the country being nearer collapse, (exacerbate the matters)

Oil was nationalized by the govt (it took ownership of oil production facilities from private owners) and accounts for 95% of country/s export and 25% of the GDP.  But oil price has taken a beating because of too much inventory, and cracks at OPEC.  (Even Saudi has made massive borrowings to make up for shortfall in national budget) and focused its growth target on non oil business

It was concluded by experts that the country is unlikely to make its debt payments this year and will need massive intervention from the IMF.

Pres Duterte explains once again his statement that he is severing ties with US

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Rizal Philippines
October 22, 2016

Pres Duterte Announces Military Economic Ties with US


For the nth time somebody is interpreting/paraphrasing the statement pf Pres DU30 made at a meeting in Beijing this week re"severing ties military and economic ties with US"  Several major dailies carried the same story, so with the videos This post was shocked and was careful enough to note what the the good President said..  This sent shock waves to the BPO industry with over 1 million employees employed and with revenues of $20 billion, almost equal to OFW remittance.

The US State department was concerned;   China Foreign Minister took the statement lightly (She knew what DU30 meant - probably joking or engaging in a balimbing talk.

He said it is not severance of ties  (but only a  separation of policy

Eh ano ba Mr President?  Sinabi mo SEVERANCE.  Make up Mr. President.  Say exactly what you mean.   Let us not confuse every one or be engaged in double talk.  It is not good for a President to engage in that kind of talk;  it weakens his leadership and stature and probably the support of 16 million voters has waned

With due respect, please say what you mean and mean what you say.  No double talk, no need for interpreters   You are our Preisdent.  We want you to succeed and lead us into your great promises.  Please do not confuse your nation

Very disturbing developments in the DU30 foreign policy

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Rizal Philippines
October  21, 2016

#shocking #breakingtieswithUS

This post has been a supporter of the DU30 govt and even an avid supporter. However, when he said without prior consultation and notice and announced that he would break military and economic ties with US  and join China and Russia this post was shocked.

At the end of the day, what did we get?  The revival of friendship between China and Phil?  $12 billion worth of trade deals (on paper).  Did we get the vaunted  Philippine sovereignty.  No that was not tackled.  At the end of the day we did not get much from China, who could be stingy with its former arch enemy.  Let us not forget the lifting of the ban on travel

On the other hand what can we expect:

1.   Possible departure of other US business from the Philippines?

2.  More foreign aid from US? Or less or Zero?

3.  Our defense lies where?  Our US hardware will fit into the Chinese aid if ever?  Why break US military ties?

4.  Less foreign trade with US.  US is one of the biggest trading partners of the PHL and is  still the biggest economy of the world. Chinas and Japans economy is dependent on US economy that is why the two deal diplomatically with US.

Did DU30 do this on his own or in consultation with other cool heads?

At the end of the day we can say that DU30 did this to spite US and UN for trying to investigate his anti drug campaign (talagang ganun, gagawin nila tungkulin nila) and for having spat with Obama (imagined  - he did not have face to face spat with Pres Obama)   DU30 has made a big blunder and mistake and his 16 manok supporter is unravelling. Thsi time former FVR could be right.

Hinay hinay Mr President.    Let us be more circumspect for the nation.   You could be wrong too

In the meantime expect more rabid rallies from the leftist groups as what has happened at US embassy recently (DU30 will have problem whom to side? -  the police who helps in the drug war, or the rallyists?) and more leftist govt policies that could hurt the business.  This may foment instability